Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 12.920258 14.763134 16.759433 19.080534 21.703029 24.572155 27.946949
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 10.088015 12.531911 15.389663 18.970035 23.327484 28.449935 34.919672
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.463609 11.094430 14.325066 18.569449 23.983141 30.640390 39.429663
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.401527 10.173678 13.727694 18.595222 25.062733 33.332362 44.676012
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.695158 9.587404 13.435379 18.896711 26.410614 36.341865 50.412689
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.062907 9.014212 13.076118 19.031347 27.488081 39.005301 55.805717
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.444972 8.384112 12.558903 18.866794 28.090022 41.002344 60.348565
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.017164 7.979509 12.311394 19.040320 29.146078 43.654525 65.928034
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.762501 7.804248 12.372994 19.652591 30.856645 47.315770 73.150620
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.340569 7.326377 11.931341 19.454734 31.316141 49.137519 77.723359
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.786030 6.583616 11.014554 18.437645 30.425857 48.846238 79.036288
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.602201 6.430459 11.015894 18.868729 31.820492 52.114348 86.004169
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.416937 6.264733 10.992717 19.272198 33.220868 55.511725 93.444825
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.135955 5.908432 10.624044 19.071146 33.612125 57.317349 98.432267
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.856445 5.527437 10.179133 18.697975 33.673002 58.562591 102.534538
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.667491 5.293547 9.970010 18.714008 34.389839 60.919877 108.603273
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.539514 5.161222 9.929227 19.020695 35.623381 64.203073 116.404699
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.397442 4.988877 9.800843 19.155022 36.550782 66.998821 123.498108
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.227567 4.746758 9.523251 18.989840 36.917415 68.822227 128.962893
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.115199 4.609209 9.431648 19.164305 37.911836 71.797907 136.616668
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.063392 4.590627 9.567004 19.780384 39.765243 76.408375 147.453107
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.922455 4.373721 9.295791 19.581296 40.048435 78.154047 153.105527
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.706216 3.977038 8.634359 18.557953 38.666209 76.724942 152.751404